"Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Paramount Pictures will release "Scary Movie," a reboot of the horror-comedy franchise, on 6 June 2026. The market settles on domestically-sourced opening weekend gross (3–7 June) as reported by The Numbers, using final figures rather than studio estimates. The settlement window closes 8 June at midday, allowing for weekend box office data to crystallise before resolution.

Horror-comedy reboots have shown volatile opening performance in recent years. "Happy Death Day" (2017) opened to $26 million domestically; its sequel underperformed at $21 million. The original "Scary Movie" (2000) grossed $42 million opening weekend in nominal terms, though adjusted for inflation that represents substantially higher purchasing power. Recent franchise revivals—including "Scream" (2022) at $30 million and "Insidious: The Red Door" (2023) at $36 million—suggest the subgenre retains audience interest but faces fragmentation across streaming platforms and competing theatrical releases. The 0% crowd probability reflects either genuine uncertainty about release timing, production status, or market liquidity constraints rather than consensus bearishness.

From a regulatory standpoint, this market operates under distinct jurisdictional frameworks. German traders face GlüStV (Glücksspielstaatsvertrag) classification considerations, which may restrict participation depending on the platform's licensing. US CFTC reach extends to derivatives-like instruments, though prediction markets occupy a grey zone. The "no-KYC up to $1,500" threshold common across some platforms means traders can access this market with minimal identity verification provided their position value remains below that ceiling—a practical accessibility point for smaller positions but not a guarantee of regulatory exemption.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Legal UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Legal UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Legal UK?

Zero. Polymarket Legal UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Legal UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.