Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly one-fifth of global seaborne oil passes, has experienced significant volatility in transit traffic since late 2023 owing to Houthi attacks on commercial shipping, regional tensions, and temporary diversions via the Cape of Good Hope. The IMF Portwatch dataset tracks daily arrivals of container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker vessels transiting the waterway. A 7-day moving average of 60 daily calls would represent a return to pre-disruption baseline levels; the market asks whether this threshold will be reached by end of June 2026.

Historical precedent suggests that Strait transit disruptions typically resolve within 12–18 months once diplomatic or military interventions stabilise the corridor. The 2019–2020 tanker crisis saw traffic recover to normal within roughly 14 months after initial incidents. Current crowd probability of 51% reflects genuine uncertainty: whilst some shipping has already rerouted back through the Strait, sustained attacks or escalation could prolong diversions, and any new geopolitical flashpoint—Israeli-Iranian escalation, Houthi capability expansion, or US policy shifts—could reset recovery timelines.

Traders should monitor announcements from the International Maritime Organization, US Central Command incident reports, and Houthi statements regarding targeting intentions. The UK P&I Club and Lloyd's Market Association regularly publish transit data that precedes IMF Portwatch releases by days; watching these sources provides early signals. Additionally, oil price movements and shipping insurance premiums (particularly war-risk premiums for the Strait) correlate tightly with traffic normalisation expectations. Any ceasefire agreement involving Houthi actors or significant US naval presence changes would likely accelerate the resolution toward "Yes".

Methodology

This page reviews Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.