US and Iran sign an agreement by 2026?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying event concerns whether the United States and Iran will execute a formal written agreement before 31 July 2026. The agreement need not be comprehensive; any signed document substantively reflecting mutual acceptance qualifies, whether both parties sign one document or separate ones with aligned terms. An authorised representative from each government must execute the agreement, and minor translation or formatting differences do not disqualify it.

Historical precedent shapes the 86% probability. The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), signed in 2015, established a template for US-Iran written agreements despite decades of hostility. Though the Trump administration withdrew in 2018, the agreement itself demonstrated that formal signing is achievable when political conditions align. Subsequent negotiations over the JCPOA's revival between 2021 and 2022 produced draft texts but no final signature, illustrating that proximity to agreement does not guarantee execution. The current probability reflects market assessment that some agreement—whether sanctions relief, nuclear-related, or otherwise—is more likely than not within the 18-month window.

Traders should monitor announcements from the US State Department, Iranian Foreign Ministry, and multilateral intermediaries including the EU and UN. The 2024 US presidential transition and Iranian domestic political cycles create unpredictable catalysts. Recent reporting from Reuters and AP indicates backchannel discussions persist, though no formal negotiations are publicly scheduled. The market's high probability assumes at least one of several possible agreements (sanctions relief, prisoner exchanges, nuclear talks revival) will reach signature stage, though geopolitical escalation or domestic political opposition in either capital could rapidly shift conditions.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Legal UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Legal UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Legal UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Legal UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.