Highest temperature in Seoul on June 23?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying real-world event is the peak daily temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport on 23 June 2026, which will determine the settlement of this prediction market. Historical data for Seoul in late June indicates daytime highs typically range between 19°C and 28°C, with humidity rising as the monsoon season approaches [1][3]. Comparable cases from previous years show that late June often sees temperatures climbing toward 30°C, yet the 0% current probability for the "YES" outcome suggests the market expects conditions to remain within standard early-summer bounds rather than triggering an extreme heat anomaly [2][4].

Traders should monitor the Korea Meteorological Administration’s short-range forecasts and Wunderground’s daily updates for Incheon, as these are the definitive resolution sources [5]. A recent forecast for 23 June 2026 in Seoul predicted a high of 30°C, which sits near the upper threshold of typical ranges but does not guarantee an outlier event [2]. The primary catalyst is the timing of the monsoon onset; if heavy rain arrives before the 23th, temperatures will likely drop, whereas a dry, humid spell could push readings higher [1][8].

From a regulatory perspective, this market operates under the German Glücksspielstaatsvertrag (GlüStV) framework and faces US CFTC oversight for cross-border activity. The "no-KYC up to $1,500" provision allows traders to access this specific market without identity verification, provided their total exposure remains below that threshold, enhancing accessibility for retail participants while maintaining compliance with anti-money laundering standards. This structure ensures that the market remains open to a broad audience without compromising legal integrity under current international gambling and financial regulations.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Seoul on June 23? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket Legal UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Legal UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Legal UK?

Zero. Polymarket Legal UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Legal UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.