Highest temperature in NYC on June 9?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 9 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport Station will settle this market into one of several predefined Fahrenheit ranges. Resolution depends on historical weather data published by Weather Underground for that specific date and location. LaGuardia's official observation station provides the baseline for New York City temperature benchmarking across meteorological and regulatory contexts.

June temperatures at LaGuardia typically range from 75 to 88 degrees Fahrenheit, with historical highs occasionally exceeding 90 degrees during heat waves. The current 0% crowd probability suggests either extreme confidence in a specific range or insufficient liquidity across outcome brackets. Comparable June markets in prior years show that New York City experiences high variance—the 30-year June average high is approximately 79 degrees, but individual days regularly deviate by 10+ degrees depending on Atlantic weather patterns and upper-level atmospheric positioning.

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service forecast window as June 2026 approaches, particularly alerts for heat advisories or unusual pressure systems in the week preceding settlement. The NOAA Climate Prediction Center issues monthly outlooks that may flag anomalous temperature patterns. Weather Underground's historical data feed, the stated resolution source, updates daily and remains publicly accessible; verification of the exact timestamp and station identifier (KLGA) is essential before settlement, as airport station readings can differ marginally from city-centre observations. No regulatory KYC thresholds affect this market's accessibility under current UK or US frameworks for weather derivatives under $1,500 notional value.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Legal UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Legal UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Legal UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Legal UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.