US-Iran deal text released by 2026?

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Market context

On 14 June 2026, the United States and Iran jointly announced a written diplomatic agreement, with a signing ceremony scheduled for 19 June. This market resolves affirmatively if any substantive portion of that agreement text becomes publicly available by 1 July 2026. The 90% crowd probability reflects confidence that at least partial disclosure will occur within the fortnight following the signing date.

Historical precedent suggests high disclosure likelihood. The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in 2015 saw full text publication within days of announcement, as did the Iran nuclear deal's annexes and technical specifications. Conversely, certain confidential protocols and side letters remained restricted for years. The current 90% probability appears calibrated to a middle case: core agreement language released for legislative or public scrutiny, whilst sensitive implementation schedules or security provisions may remain redacted. The Trump administration's 2018 withdrawal from the JCPOA did not prevent prior disclosure; transparency pressures in both democracies typically favour eventual publication of headline terms.

Traders should monitor three catalysts. First, whether either government announces a publication timeline at the 19 June signing ceremony—official statements often telegraph disclosure intent. Second, congressional notification requirements: US law typically mandates briefing Congress on major international agreements within 15 days, often triggering media leaks. Third, Iranian parliamentary ratification procedures, which generally require public debate of agreement terms. The settlement window's tight 13-day span means early disclosure signals (press releases, legislative summaries, leaked excerpts) will prove decisive. Reuters and AP newswires remain primary sources for confirming "widely available" status.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Legal UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Legal UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.