Morocco vs. Haiti - Exact Score

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 24 June 2026 at 6:00 PM ET, Morocco and Haiti will face in a FIFA World Cup Group C match at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, with the market resolving solely on the 90-minute regulation score, excluding extra time and penalties. The current crowd-implied probability of 5% for an "Exact Score" outcome reflects the high variance inherent in single-match football predictions, particularly when one team (Haiti) has limited World Cup experience compared to Morocco’s seven prior qualifications and strong recent form, including a 1-0 win over Scotland and a 1-1 draw with Brazil in the same tournament group [2][9].

Historically, similar single-match exact-score markets in World Cup group stages have shown settlement rates below 10% for any listed outcome, with "Any Other Score" dominating due to the unpredictability of low-scoring draws or narrow margins; for instance, in the 2022 World Cup, over 60% of group-stage matches resolved to unlisted exact scores, framing the 5% probability as conservative but plausible given Morocco’s defensive discipline (0.4 opponent points per game) and Haiti’s inconsistent away record [5]. Traders should monitor pre-match line-up announcements, weather conditions in Atlanta, and any late squad changes, as Morocco’s coach recently confirmed key defenders are fit, while Haiti’s training footage shows tactical adjustments ahead of the clash [6][8].

Regulatory accessibility for this market is shaped by German GlüStV provisions allowing non-KYC participation up to €1,500 for licensed operators, and US CFTC reach permitting similar thresholds for state-registered prediction platforms, meaning UK-based traders can access this market without identity verification if the platform holds appropriate licences; this "no-KYC up to $1,500" framework significantly lowers entry barriers for retail participants, though it does not alter the underlying 5% probability or the match’s fixed settlement window ending 22:00 UTC on 24 June 2026 [1][2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Morocco vs. Haiti - Exact Score on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Legal UK?

Zero. Polymarket Legal UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.