Haiti vs. Scotland

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Haiti and Scotland will meet in a World Cup group stage fixture on 13 June 2026, with the match taking place in North America as part of the expanded 48-team tournament format. The current 62% crowd probability favours Haiti, reflecting expectations around squad depth, recent competitive form, and home-region advantage considerations for a Caribbean-based nation in a North American tournament. Settlement occurs at 01:00 UTC on 14 June, immediately following the final whistle.

Historical precedent suggests caution when interpreting crowd probabilities for fixtures involving smaller football nations. Haiti's last World Cup appearance was 1974; Scotland last qualified in 1998. Direct competitive history between these sides is minimal, making comparative squad analysis the primary analytical tool. Recent qualification campaigns saw Scotland finish second in their UEFA group, whilst Haiti topped their CONCACAF region—a structural difference that complicates probability calibration. Comparable emerging-nation matchups at previous tournaments have often seen crowd sentiment overweight recent qualification success relative to tournament-stage performance data.

Traders should monitor squad announcements through May 2026, injury updates to key players, and any late tactical shifts from either federation. The German GlüStV framework classifies sports prediction markets as financial instruments requiring specific licensing; UK-domiciled platforms typically operate under Gambling Commission oversight. US CFTC reach extends to US-based traders, though sports event derivatives remain in regulatory grey zones. Most platforms offering this market permit no-KYC participation up to $1,500 notional exposure per account, meaning casual traders can access the market without identity verification below that threshold—a material consideration for retail participation levels and potential crowd-probability volatility near settlement.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Legal UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Legal UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.