Dota 2: 4 Anchors and Ilmeria vs the bug (BO3) - The International North America Closed Qualifier Playoffs

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying event is the Lower bracket final of The International 2026 North America Closed Qualifier, where 4 Anchors and Ilmeria face the bug in a best-of-three match originally set for 4:00 PM ET on 26 June. With the crowd-implied probability at 50-50, the market treats both sides as evenly matched, a stance consistent with historical precedents in regional qualifiers where lower-bracket teams often possess similar recent form and tactical depth. Comparable cases from the 2025 TI qualifiers show that matches resolving to 50-50 due to cancellation or ties are rare, occurring in less than 2% of events, suggesting the current pricing reflects genuine competitive uncertainty rather than procedural risk[2][4].

Traders should monitor official tournament announcements regarding schedule adjustments or player eligibility, as dependencies on online infrastructure can delay resolution beyond the seven-day settlement window. Recent coverage from GosuGamers highlights 4 Anchors and Ilmeria’s roster stability and performance history, which may influence momentum if the match proceeds without interruption[8]. Regulatory frameworks also shape accessibility: under Germany’s GlüStV, prediction markets must adhere to strict licensing, while the US CFTC maintains reach over digital commodity derivatives. The “no-KYC up to $1,500” provision allows traders to access this market without identity verification for smaller stakes, enhancing liquidity but requiring caution regarding potential future compliance shifts[1][3].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Legal UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Legal UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Legal UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.