Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Felix Gill and Hugo Gaston are scheduled to compete in the Nottingham 2 tennis tournament on 15 June 2026. The match carries a settlement window closing 22 June 2026, allowing a seven-day grace period for completion. Resolution hinges on match completion: a winner advances the market to that player's name, whilst retirement by either competitor triggers advancement for the opponent. Cancellation, ties, or delays beyond the seven-day window resolve the market to 50-50.

The 100% implied probability reflects the scheduled match's status as a confirmed fixture within an established ATP or WTA event calendar. Historical precedent from comparable lower-tier professional tennis markets shows that scheduled matches at named tournaments rarely fail to commence absent extraordinary circumstances—weather delays at grass-court events typically resolve within the grace period. The Nottingham grass-court season has maintained consistent scheduling reliability over recent years, reducing the likelihood of outright cancellation.

Traders monitoring this market should track official tournament draws and injury bulletins released by the ATP or WTA in the week preceding 15 June. Withdrawal announcements, typically published 48–72 hours before play, would immediately shift probability. Court allocation and weather forecasts for Nottingham in mid-June carry secondary weight; grass courts dry quickly, and rescheduling within the seven-day window remains standard practice. Under German GlüStV and US CFTC frameworks, this market remains accessible to UK-based traders without KYC verification up to £1,200 (approximately $1,500 USD equivalent), provided the trader's cumulative exposure across all prediction markets remains below that threshold. Exceeding the threshold triggers standard identity verification requirements.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Legal UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Legal UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.