WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above 2026 on June 9?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

WTI crude oil's closing price on 9 June 2026 will reflect global supply-demand equilibrium, geopolitical risk premiums, and macroeconomic sentiment at that specific moment. The contract settles based on the official closing price reported by the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), which publishes settlement data at 14:30 Central Time. Current crowd probability of 0% YES suggests traders expect the price to remain below the unspecified threshold, though the absence of a stated strike price creates ambiguity about what constitutes resolution.

Historical WTI volatility patterns offer context for interpreting this extreme probability. Between 2020 and 2024, WTI ranged from $16 per barrel (April 2020) to $130 (June 2022), demonstrating that single-day movements of $5–$10 occur regularly during geopolitical events or OPEC announcements. The 0% probability may reflect either a very high strike price relative to current futures curves, or market consensus that no catalyst exists to drive prices above a specified level by June 2026. Comparable energy derivatives markets show that crude oil prices respond sharply to inventory reports (released Wednesdays by the US Energy Information Administration), OPEC production decisions, and Middle East tensions.

Traders monitoring this market should track the NYMEX WTI futures curve, which typically prices in expected supply disruptions months ahead. Regulatory access varies: US CFTC rules permit US persons to trade energy derivatives on registered exchanges; German traders fall under GlüStV oversight, which generally permits commodity derivatives trading above €500 notional exposure thresholds. No-KYC access up to $1,500 on some platforms applies to spot or synthetic instruments, not NYMEX-settled futures, which require full identity verification and accredited status in most jurisdictions.

Methodology

We track WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above 2026 on June 9? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Legal UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.