WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above 2026 on June 10?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

WTI crude oil's closing price on 10 June 2026 will reflect supply-demand dynamics, geopolitical developments, and macroeconomic conditions across a six-month horizon. The contract settles against the official WTI spot close reported by the US Energy Information Administration, making it a direct reference to observable market data rather than a derivative instrument.

The 100% implied probability suggests market participants expect WTI to remain above the specified threshold with near-certainty. Historical precedent shows WTI has traded between roughly $40 and $130 per barrel over the past decade, with extended periods above most plausible settlement levels. Comparable long-dated crude forecasts typically reflect structural supply constraints (OPEC+ production decisions, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, and US shale output trends) rather than short-term volatility. When crowd probability reaches this extreme, it often indicates either a very high threshold or consensus around fundamental price floors.

Traders should monitor OPEC+ production announcements scheduled through early 2026, US inventory data releases, and developments in Iran sanctions policy, all of which materially influence WTI pricing. From a regulatory standpoint, this market operates under CFTC jurisdiction in the US; the German GlüStV framework applies to EU-based participants, with no-KYC access typically available for positions under €1,500 notional value depending on the platform's licensing model. Settlement occurs at 21:00 UTC on the specified date, aligning with standard US market close conventions. Participants should verify their jurisdiction's commodity trading requirements before positioning.

Methodology

We track WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above 2026 on June 10? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Legal UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Legal UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.