Tunisia vs. Japan - Exact Score

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Tunisia meet Japan in a FIFA World Cup group-stage match, with the market resolving on the **90-minute score only**; extra time and penalties are excluded, and any scoreline outside the listed options falls into *Any Other Score*. The current crowd price of **3% YES** implies an uncommon exact-score outcome rather than a view on the match winner, which matters because low-scoring football still fragments probability across many scorelines. FIFA’s match listing places the game in Group F with a 21 June 2026 kick-off, and recent preview coverage notes Japan as the more confident side heading into the fixture.[6]

Historical match-ups point to Japan as the stronger reference case. Across four recorded meetings, Japan have won three and Tunisia one, with the latest fixture ending 2-0 to Japan in October 2023 and Tunisia’s only win coming 3-0 in June 2022.[1][3][8] That background supports reading the 3% figure as a thin slice of the exact-score distribution, especially in a market where draw-like outcomes and one-goal margins can still dominate. For access, a **no-KYC up to $1,500** model means smaller balances can typically be used without full identity verification, but that does not remove jurisdictional restrictions or payment-screening limits. In Germany, GlüStV rules can make access materially dependent on whether the platform is treated as a permitted gambling-style service, while in the United States, CFTC reach remains relevant if the contract is viewed as a regulated derivatives product.

The main catalysts are straightforward: confirmed line-ups, any injury or suspension news, and whether the match proceeds on schedule at all. Because the market stays open until the fixture is actually completed if postponed, settlement risk sits less in the exact score mechanics than in event delivery. Traders also watch tournament scheduling and venue-dependent logistics, since FIFA confirms the fixture in its match centre and the broader World Cup calendar can still shift in response to operational issues.[6]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Legal UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Legal UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Legal UK?

Zero. Polymarket Legal UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.