Ethereum above 2026 on June 13?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

This market resolves based on Ethereum's closing price on the Binance ETH/USDT pair at noon Eastern Time on 13 June 2026, using the 1-minute candle data available through Binance's standard charting interface. The settlement window closes at 16:00 UTC that day, allowing a three-hour window after the noon ET reference point for price confirmation and dispute resolution. Because resolution hinges on a single exchange's spot price at a specific moment, rather than a broader market metric or news event, execution risk centres on Binance's operational continuity and data integrity on that date.

The 100% crowd probability reflects the market's structural design: any positive price threshold will almost certainly be exceeded given Ethereum's historical volatility and the two-year settlement horizon. Comparable single-exchange, single-minute resolution markets have historically resolved YES when thresholds were set conservatively, though technical outages or extreme market dislocations have occasionally triggered disputes. The specificity of Binance's data feed—rather than aggregated indices—means traders are pricing certainty of the exchange's availability and normal operation, not certainty of Ethereum's direction.

From a regulatory standpoint, this market's accessibility varies by jurisdiction. German traders face restrictions under the GlüStV gaming statute, which classifies certain prediction markets as unlicensed gambling. US traders encounter CFTC oversight of Ethereum derivatives, though spot-price prediction markets occupy a greyer zone. Platforms offering no-KYC access up to $1,500 notional exposure typically operate under exemptions for small-value contracts, meaning this market's entry cost may fall below KYC thresholds in certain jurisdictions—a material factor for retail participation and thus crowd probability calibration.

Methodology

This page reviews Ethereum above 2026 on June 13? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket Legal UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Legal UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Legal UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.