Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket Legal UK Pick polygram.ink |
10% | 90% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open on Polymarket Legal UK → |
Polymarket polymarket.com |
10% | 90% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open on Polymarket Legal UK → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open on Polymarket Legal UK → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open on Polymarket Legal UK → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open on Polymarket Legal UK → |
Live odds for Polymarket-based markets come from the Polygon order book. Non-Polymarket venues show attributes only; clicking any row opens the market on Polymarket Legal UK.
Active sub-markets
| First Blood in Game 3? | 10% RED Canids | 90% LOS |
| First Blood in Game 4? | 50% RED Canids | 50% LOS |
| Game 1 Winner | 0% RED Canids | 100% LOS |
| Game 2 Winner | 0% RED Canids | 100% LOS |
| Game 3 Winner | 0% RED Canids | 100% LOS |
| Game 4 Winner | 51% RED Canids | 50% LOS |
Market context
RED Canids and LOS will contest the grand final of the Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Qualifier Playoffs in League of Legends on 14 June 2026, with the winner securing qualification to the broader Esports World Cup tournament. The best-of-five match is scheduled for 12:00 PM ET, with settlement contingent on completion by 21 June 2026; any cancellation, tie, or delay beyond that window triggers a 50-50 resolution.
South American League of Legends competition has historically favoured established organisations with consistent roster stability and scrim infrastructure. RED Canids' track record in regional playoffs and LOS's recent performance trajectory will inform the even 50-50 implied probability. Previous LATAM qualifier finals have occasionally seen upsets when lower-seeded teams fielded unexpected meta adaptations or exploited opponent preparation gaps, though favourites typically convert. The current probability reflects genuine uncertainty rather than a clear skill differential in available pre-match data.
Traders should monitor roster confirmations and any last-minute substitutions announced before 14 June, as mid-season roster changes have disrupted South American teams' performance in prior tournaments. Scrim results and recent domestic league standings—if either team competes in a concurrent regional league—provide indirect signal. Schedule delays are uncommon in EWC-affiliated events, though technical issues during broadcast have occasionally extended match windows. Under German GlüStV and US CFTC frameworks, this market remains accessible to UK traders; the no-KYC threshold up to £1,200 (approximately $1,500 USD equivalent) applies to aggregate position size across all prediction markets on a given platform, meaning individual trades below that cumulative limit avoid additional verification requirements for this specific match outcome.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Legal UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Legal UK?
- Zero. Polymarket Legal UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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