NY-12 Democratic Primary Winner

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying real-world event is the Democratic primary for New York’s 12th Congressional District seat, scheduled for 23 June 2026, where candidates including Micah Lasher, Alex Bores, George Conway, and Jack Schlossberg will vie for the nomination to contest the 2026 midterm election. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% YES reflects a market consensus that no nominee will be formally announced before the November 3 deadline, or that the primary will resolve to “Other” under the stated rules.

Historically, similar high-profile primaries in New York City, such as the 2018 and 2022 congressional races, have seen multiple candidates enter with significant funding but fail to produce a clear nominee before election day, often resulting in “Other” outcomes or delayed resolutions. These cases frame the current 0% probability as a rational assessment of fragmentation and uncertainty, rather than an indication of a single dominant candidate’s absence. Recent reporting from *The New Yorker* notes the NY-12 race is “awash with money but short on belief,” underscoring the lack of consensus among voters and donors [5].

Traders should monitor candidate announcements, campaign finance filings via the FEC, and polling data from *The New York Times* as key catalysts, particularly any shifts in voter support or withdrawals before the June 23 primary [7]. Regulatory frameworks such as the German GlüStV and US CFTC reach influence market accessibility, while the “no-KYC up to $1,500” provision allows traders to participate without identity verification, enhancing liquidity for this specific market. These factors shape the market’s operational boundaries without altering the underlying electoral outcome.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track NY-12 Democratic Primary Winner on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Legal UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Legal UK?

Zero. Polymarket Legal UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Legal UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.