What price will Bitcoin hit on May 3?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The real-world event determining this market’s outcome is the exact price of Bitcoin at 9am EDT on 3 May 2026, a figure that will settle whether the “YES” contract pays out or expires worthless. Current crowd-implied probability sits at 0% YES, reflecting a market consensus that the price will not reach the required threshold, likely due to the asset’s recent 50% drawdown from its October 2025 all-time high of $126,198[1][5].

Historical volatility patterns and comparable drawdowns frame this probability: after peaking in late 2025, Bitcoin fell to roughly $60,000 in early 2026 before stabilising between $65,000 and $73,000 through March, with May 3 itself recording a price of $78,656.73[5][7]. Technical analysis suggests the current equilibrium zone lies between $80,000 and $100,000, with a presumable low near $50,000, meaning the 0% probability aligns with the asset’s struggle to reclaim its prior range despite a strong April close[2].

Traders should monitor upcoming regulatory announcements, particularly Germany’s proposed GlüStV amendments on crypto taxation and the US CFTC’s expanded reach over digital asset derivatives, which could trigger sudden price shifts. Recent reporting highlights how “no-KYC up to $1,500” thresholds in certain jurisdictions may enhance market accessibility for retail participants, though these rules do not guarantee price movement[4]. A key dependency is the Federal Reserve’s June interest-rate schedule, which could influence liquidity and risk appetite in the weeks leading to settlement[1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Legal UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Legal UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Legal UK?

Zero. Polymarket Legal UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.