What price will Bitcoin hit on May 20?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Bitcoin’s price on 20 May will be judged against the market’s specified reference time, with settlement due at 04:00 UTC on 21 May. The current crowd-implied probability of a YES outcome is 0%, which is usually read as the market expecting the relevant price threshold not to be met at the close. For context, comparable Bitcoin price markets on Polymarket have often priced very high levels as effectively certain once spot has moved well above them: separate May 2026 and full-year 2026 contracts show 80,000 and 90,000 outcomes at 100%, indicating how binary these bands can become when the underlying is already trading near the cut-off.

The main legal-access point is that this sort of market sits within a wider regulatory frame: German GlüStV rules matter because they restrict access to many gambling-style offerings, while the US CFTC’s reach is relevant where a product may be treated as a derivatives-style event contract rather than a simple wager. In practical terms, “no-KYC up to $1,500” means a user can usually access the market without identity checks until cumulative activity crosses that threshold, after which verification is required; that affects who can enter quickly, but not the market’s settlement mechanics.

Traders will be watching Bitcoin spot volatility, exchange benchmark prints and any late-day macro or crypto headlines that could move the price into the reference window. Recent published forecasts are mixed but broadly cluster around the high-$70,000s: Changelly’s May 2026 estimate centres near $80,968, while Binance’s daily projection sits around $77,410 on 21 May. Those forecasts are not market prices, but they help explain why contracts near current spot can reprice sharply if there is a break from the prevailing range.

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Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.