What price will Ethereum hit on June 13?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Ethereum's price on 13 June 2026 will be determined by spot market rates across major exchanges at settlement time. The 0% crowd probability reflects either extreme confidence in a specific price threshold being missed or sparse liquidity in this particular outcome cluster. Historical volatility in Ethereum—ranging from sub-$1,000 to over $4,800 in recent cycles—suggests wide price bands are plausible across any given day, yet the settlement window's two-year horizon allows substantial macro shifts in adoption, regulatory stance, and competing layer-two solutions to reshape valuation fundamentals.

Comparable price-point markets on Ethereum have typically drawn traders when thresholds align with round numbers or technical resistance levels. The current 0% reading may indicate the specified price sits outside consensus expectations, or that traders view the settlement date as too distant for meaningful prediction confidence. Regulatory clarity will likely influence positioning: the German GlüStV (gambling licensing framework) has begun treating crypto derivatives with stricter oversight, whilst US CFTC jurisdiction over Ethereum futures continues to shape institutional participation. For retail traders, no-KYC access up to $1,500 notional exposure on some platforms remains available, though this market's price-point specificity may require higher stakes to move probability meaningfully.

Key catalysts include Ethereum's Shanghai and subsequent upgrade schedules, macroeconomic policy shifts affecting risk appetite, and any material shifts in staking yield or network security metrics. Recent announcements regarding spot ETF approvals in major jurisdictions have historically compressed volatility expectations, though June 2026 pricing remains highly speculative given the settlement window's length.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Legal UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Legal UK?

Zero. Polymarket Legal UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Legal UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.