What price will Bitcoin hit on June 13?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Bitcoin's price movement on a specific calendar date depends on macroeconomic releases, geopolitical events, and exchange-traded product flows occurring in that 24-hour window. June 13, 2026 falls within a period when US inflation data, Federal Reserve communications, and institutional positioning typically influence spot and futures markets. The 2% crowd probability suggests traders assess a narrow price target as unlikely within that single day's volatility envelope.

Historical precedent shows single-day Bitcoin moves of 5–8% occur roughly 15–20 times annually, though moves exceeding 10% in a calendar day remain rarer. The 2026 settlement window occurs after the fourth Bitcoin halving (April 2024) and amid matured spot ETF adoption across North America and Europe. Comparable markets pricing specific-date price targets have consistently underweighted tail-risk scenarios; the low probability here reflects baseline scepticism that any single catalyst—regulatory announcement, major acquisition, or macroeconomic shock—will move Bitcoin to an extreme level on that precise date rather than adjacent trading sessions.

Traders monitoring this market should track the US economic calendar for June 2026 (particularly CPI releases and FOMC statements), announcements from major institutional holders, and regulatory developments under the German GlüStV framework, which governs crypto derivatives marketing to retail investors. The US CFTC's reach over Bitcoin futures contracts means any enforcement action or position-limit change could cascade into spot markets. For market participants, the no-KYC threshold up to £1,500 (approximately $1,900 USD equivalent) remains relevant for smaller position entry, though larger traders will face standard identity verification across regulated venues.

Methodology

We track What price will Bitcoin hit on June 13? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Legal UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Legal UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.