Bitcoin price on May 26?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Bitcoin's spot price at noon ET on 26 May 2026 will be determined by the closing price of the Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle at that specific moment. The market resolves to "No" if Binance data is unavailable or the price falls outside defined brackets; ties resolve to the higher bracket. Settlement occurs after the 16:00 UTC window closes on that date.

Regulatory frameworks governing crypto-price prediction markets have crystallised since 2023. Germany's GlüStV (Gambling Supervision Treaty) classifies certain price-prediction contracts as gaming products subject to licensing; UK FCA guidance treats prediction markets as unregulated unless they involve derivatives or leverage. US CFTC oversight extends to binary options on crypto spot prices if marketed to US persons, though Binance spot-price feeds themselves remain outside direct CFTC jurisdiction. This market's 0% crowd probability likely reflects either extreme uncertainty about settlement mechanics or low trader participation; comparable Bitcoin price-prediction markets on other platforms have historically shown non-zero probabilities even for distant dates, suggesting either technical barriers or regulatory hesitation among potential participants in this particular venue.

Traders monitoring this market should track Binance's operational status and any changes to BTC/USDT data feeds through May 2026. No-KYC access up to $1,500 USD notional exposure means retail participants can engage without identity verification, though larger positions require standard verification. Macro catalysts—Federal Reserve policy shifts, institutional adoption announcements, and geopolitical events affecting energy costs for mining—will drive Bitcoin volatility across the settlement window. The 18-month timeframe permits substantial price discovery; historical Bitcoin volatility suggests meaningful probability mass should exist across multiple price brackets rather than clustering at zero.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Legal UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Legal UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Legal UK?

Zero. Polymarket Legal UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.