Bitcoin above 2026 on May 25?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

This market resolves based on Bitcoin's closing price on the Binance BTC/USDT pair at noon Eastern Time on 25 May 2026, using the 1-minute candle data publicly available on Binance's platform. The settlement window closes at 16:00 UTC that day, allowing a four-hour window after the noon ET reference point for price confirmation. Resolution depends entirely on Binance's recorded close price for that specific minute candle, not on prices from other exchanges or trading pairs.

The 100% implied probability reflects the mathematical certainty that Bitcoin will trade at some price on that date, rather than confidence in any particular price level. Historical precedent shows that when markets resolve on specific exchange data at defined timestamps, execution risk remains minimal provided the exchange remains operational—Binance has maintained continuous BTC/USDT trading through multiple market cycles since 2017. However, extreme scenarios such as exchange outages, trading halts, or force majeure events have occasionally delayed or altered settlement in crypto prediction markets, though such occurrences are rare for major pairs on established venues.

Traders should monitor regulatory developments affecting Binance's operational status, particularly in jurisdictions where the exchange faces licensing restrictions. The German GlüStV (gambling licensing framework) and ongoing CFTC enforcement actions against unregistered derivatives platforms create potential operational risks, though spot trading on Binance typically operates under different regulatory treatment than derivatives. For UK-based participants, the FCA's approach to crypto spot trading accessibility remains relevant; platforms offering no-KYC access up to £1,200 (approximately $1,500) may affect liquidity patterns around settlement, though this market's resolution depends solely on Binance's official recorded price rather than participant access levels.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.