Bitcoin price on May 31?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

This market resolves based on Bitcoin's closing price at noon ET on 31 May 2026, using the Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle. The 0% crowd probability reflects the market's current inability to price a specific price point nearly eighteen months forward; such long-dated, narrow-bracket Bitcoin markets typically show compressed liquidity and wide implied ranges rather than consensus on directional conviction.

Regulatory frameworks governing access to this market vary by jurisdiction. In Germany, the GlüStV (Glücksspielstaatsvertrag) classifies prediction markets as gaming products subject to licensing requirements; traders in that territory face restrictions on unregulated platforms. The US CFTC's reach extends to binary options and event contracts, though prediction markets operating outside derivatives exchanges occupy a grey zone. Many platforms permit trading without full KYC up to $1,500 notional exposure, a threshold that affects market depth and participant composition—smaller retail positions dominate entry-level brackets, whilst larger institutional flows require full identity verification and compliance documentation.

Bitcoin's price trajectory over the next eighteen months will depend on macroeconomic policy shifts, particularly US Federal Reserve rate decisions and inflation data releases scheduled through Q2 2026. Recent volatility has tracked geopolitical tensions and corporate treasury allocation announcements; the market should monitor regulatory clarity around spot Bitcoin ETF custody standards and any significant central bank digital currency announcements that could alter institutional demand. Settlement precision at the noon ET candle means traders must account for intraday volatility and regional market-open effects across Asian and European sessions.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Legal UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Legal UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Legal UK?

Zero. Polymarket Legal UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Legal UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.