Bitcoin price on June 14?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

This market settles on the BTC/USDT closing price at noon ET on 14 June 2026, sourced from Binance's 1-minute candle data. The 0% crowd probability reflects either extreme confidence in a specific price range or minimal trading activity; given the two-year settlement window, liquidity and conviction typically remain low until the final weeks approach. Binance pricing serves as the objective reference, eliminating discretionary interpretation, though traders should verify that the exchange maintains its current data feed structure through mid-2026.

Regulatory frameworks affecting Bitcoin price discovery and market access have shifted materially since 2024. The German GlüStV (Glücksspielstaatsvertrag) classifies certain prediction markets as gambling, creating compliance friction for EU participants. In the US, CFTC jurisdiction over Bitcoin derivatives has expanded, though spot markets remain less directly regulated. For this market specifically, many platforms enforce KYC thresholds; no-KYC access typically caps at $1,500 per transaction, meaning larger positions require identity verification. These barriers fragment liquidity and may suppress participation from retail traders, potentially widening bid-ask spreads on long-dated Bitcoin price brackets.

Catalysts shaping Bitcoin volatility through June 2026 include Federal Reserve policy announcements, institutional adoption milestones, and geopolitical developments affecting energy costs for mining. The Bitcoin halving cycle—next scheduled for April 2028—creates secondary effects on supply expectations well before that date. Traders monitoring this market should track macroeconomic inflation data, central bank communications, and any legislative changes to crypto taxation or custody standards, all of which influence spot price discovery on major exchanges like Binance.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Legal UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Legal UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.