Bitcoin price on June 13?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

This market resolves on the Binance BTC/USDT spot price at noon Eastern Time on 13 June 2026, using the 1-minute candle close. The current 0% probability reflects either extreme confidence in a specific price outcome or minimal trading activity; with a settlement window extending into mid-2026, the market has considerable time for price discovery and position accumulation. Resolution depends on Binance's data feed remaining accessible and the exchange maintaining its current trading infrastructure—material assumptions given regulatory scrutiny of centralised venues across jurisdictions.

Regulatory frameworks governing this market's accessibility merit attention. Under Germany's GlüStV (Glücksspielstaatsvertrag), prediction markets on financial instruments face classification as gaming contracts unless properly licensed; UK participants face no direct restriction, though FCA guidance on crypto derivatives applies to UK-domiciled operators. US CFTC jurisdiction extends to binary options on Bitcoin, though enforcement against offshore platforms remains inconsistent. The "no-KYC up to $1,500" threshold commonly cited in crypto trading refers to spot transaction limits on some exchanges; this prediction market's own KYC requirements depend on the host platform's licensing status, not the underlying Bitcoin price band being wagered.

Historical Bitcoin volatility suggests June 2026 price ranges will reflect macroeconomic conditions, Federal Reserve policy stance, and institutional adoption trends then prevailing. Traders should monitor scheduled events including potential Bitcoin ETF developments, Congressional testimony on digital assets, and major corporate treasury announcements. The 18-month settlement window allows substantial geopolitical and monetary-policy shifts to influence outcome probabilities.

Methodology

We track Bitcoin price on June 13? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Legal UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Legal UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Legal UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.