Bitcoin price on June 11?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

This market resolves to the Binance BTC/USDT closing price at noon ET on 11 June 2026, using the 1-minute candle data publicly available on Binance's platform. The 0% crowd probability reflects the inherent difficulty in predicting a specific asset price eighteen months forward; such markets typically see minimal trading activity until the final settlement window approaches, at which point real-time price discovery dominates positioning.

Regulatory frameworks affecting Bitcoin price prediction markets vary significantly by jurisdiction. In Germany, the GlüStV (Glücksspielstaatsvertrag) classifies prediction markets as gaming contracts, requiring operators to hold explicit licences; this shapes which European traders can access such markets legally. The US CFTC has asserted authority over Bitcoin derivatives, though cash-settled prediction markets on spot prices occupy a greyer zone. Many platforms impose KYC (Know Your Customer) requirements only above $1,500 in cumulative trading volume, meaning smaller positions may trade without full identity verification—a distinction that affects market liquidity and participant composition at different price brackets.

Bitcoin's spot price on any given date depends on macroeconomic conditions, regulatory announcements, and technical factors that remain unpredictable over an 18-month horizon. Traders monitoring this market should track Federal Reserve policy shifts, major institutional adoption announcements, and any significant CFTC or SEC guidance on spot Bitcoin ETFs or derivatives. Historical volatility suggests the price could reasonably settle anywhere across a wide range; the current zero probability likely reflects the market's infancy rather than genuine certainty about future price levels.

Methodology

We track Bitcoin price on June 11? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Legal UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Legal UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Legal UK?

Zero. Polymarket Legal UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Legal UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.