Claude Mythos released by…?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 26 March 2026, a data breach exposed Anthropic's unreleased "Claude Mythos" model ahead of any official announcement. Anthropic subsequently confirmed the model's existence and stated it is undergoing early access testing, with the company describing it as a significant capability step forward in coding, reasoning, and cybersecurity tasks. The market resolves affirmatively if Anthropic releases Claude Mythos or explicitly confirms a released model matches the leaked specifications before 30 April 2026.

Comparable precedent suggests forced disclosure timelines rarely accelerate release schedules. When OpenAI's GPT-4 architecture details circulated in early 2023, the company maintained its planned rollout rather than rushing deployment. Similarly, Anthropic's previous model releases have followed internal testing cycles independent of external pressure. The 0% crowd probability reflects scepticism that a two-month window—particularly one spanning Q2 planning cycles—provides sufficient runway for production release of a model described as materially more capable than existing offerings. Historical patterns favour extended testing phases for models positioned as step-changes in performance.

Traders should monitor Anthropic's official communications channels and earnings guidance for any release timeline commitments. The company typically announces availability through its website and API documentation simultaneously. Regulatory considerations under German GlüStV and US CFTC frameworks do not materially constrain this market's accessibility; traders in most jurisdictions can participate without KYC up to $1,500 notional exposure, though jurisdiction-specific restrictions apply. The settlement window closes at month-end, creating a hard deadline for any qualifying announcement.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Legal UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Legal UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Legal UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Legal UK?

Zero. Polymarket Legal UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Legal UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.