Claude 5 released by…?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Anthropic's release of Claude 5 as a publicly accessible product before the end of 2025 remains the underlying event. The settlement criteria require general public availability—whether through open beta, rolling waitlist signups, or direct access—with explicit public announcement by Anthropic. Closed beta or private access does not qualify. The current 0% crowd probability reflects scepticism that a major foundation model release of this scale will occur within the next twelve months, given typical development and safety-review timelines in the sector.

Historical precedent suggests caution. Claude 3 (released March 2024) and Claude 3.5 Sonnet (June 2024) both launched with immediate public availability through Claude.ai and API access, establishing Anthropic's pattern of relatively rapid public rollout once a model reaches production readiness. However, the gap between Claude 3 and 3.5 was three months, and no Claude 4 materialised; the company has shown willingness to skip version numbers and extend development cycles. Comparable releases from OpenAI (GPT-4 in March 2023, GPT-4 Turbo in November 2023) and Meta (Llama 2 in July 2023) occurred at irregular intervals, with some requiring months of safety evaluation post-announcement.

Traders should monitor Anthropic's quarterly research publications, developer conference schedules, and job postings for signals of imminent release. Recent statements from Anthropic leadership regarding model scaling and safety benchmarks will indicate proximity to Claude 5 readiness. The settlement window closes 30 April 2026, providing six months post-deadline for resolution clarity. Under UK-regulated prediction market frameworks, this market remains accessible to traders in jurisdictions permitting derivatives on non-financial events, with standard KYC requirements applying to accounts exceeding £1,500 cumulative stake thresholds.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Legal UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Legal UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Legal UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Legal UK?

Zero. Polymarket Legal UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.