In this guide
Verdict: Polymarket dominates in terms of trading volume and breadth of available contracts. Kalshi stands out as the sole CFTC-authorised option for American participants. Manifold excels for recreational forecasting using virtual currency. Across Europe and other jurisdictions, Polymarket accessed through PolyGram represents the optimal choice.
Prediction markets have surged in adoption throughout 2024 and into 2025. This comparison examines how the leading platforms stack up against one another.
Polymarket — The Liquidity Leader
| Liquidity | $1.5B+ annual volume. Most substantial order books across political and digital asset categories |
| Markets | 1,000+ active. Encompassing politics, digital assets, athletics, scientific developments, entertainment |
| Fees | Zero house fee. Typical spreads range from 1–3 cents |
| Currency | USDC deployed on Polygon (blockchain wallet required) |
| Access | Worldwide availability (excluding United States). Identity verification required |
| Best for | Professional market participants possessing analytical advantages |
Kalshi — US-Regulated Alternative
Kalshi operates as the sole CFTC-authorised prediction market accessible to United States residents. It has experienced substantial expansion in recent periods. Trade-offs include a narrower selection of available markets relative to Polymarket, and stringent American regulatory constraints that restrict certain contract categories from being offered.
Manifold Markets — Social Prediction
Manifold operates using virtual currency ("mana") in place of actual funds. This platform serves as an excellent resource for developing forecasting abilities and participating in collective prediction exercises — though it does not appeal to those seeking monetary returns. The ecosystem encompasses over 10,000 user-initiated markets.
Metaculus — Forecasting Platform
Metaculus assembles probabilistic assessments contributed by a distributed network of forecasters. Real capital is not involved, yet the platform excels at establishing prediction credentials and addressing complex international questions. Academic institutions frequently reference Metaculus when examining forecast calibration and reliability.
Betfair — The Legacy Exchange
Betfair represents the original peer-to-peer betting exchange, processing substantial annual turnover in athletics and electoral markets. Strengths include fiat settlement options, FCA oversight, and robust sports market depth. Limitations encompass commissions of 2–5% assessed on net gains, absence of blockchain-based asset markets, and comparatively restricted political market breadth relative to Polymarket.
Our Recommendation for 2025
For participants outside the United States seeking maximum trading depth and the broadest contract selection: Polymarket via PolyGram. PolyGram streamlines blockchain requirements whilst preserving full access to Polymarket's complete liquidity pools. Start trading on PolyGram →